Strait of Hormuz Commercial Transit Stuck at 5% of Pre-Crisis Levels as 41 Carriers Remain Stranded

Summary

IMF PortWatch data for June 21 shows only 5 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, down from a pre-crisis daily norm of 93, with throughput at 5% of baseline. War-risk insurance for VLCCs is running 8x pre-crisis at roughly $2.5M, and six P&I clubs have withdrawn cover. 41 carrier vessels remain stranded, holding around 204,000 TEU. Eight of nine major liner operators — MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Evergreen, HMM, Yang Ming — are diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, stacking $750-$1,200/TEU surcharges. The Strait Crisis Stress Index reads 91/100 (extreme) with Polymarket pricing a return to normal transit by June 30 at just 2%.