US Rail Traffic Up 4.1% in Late August as Intermodal Outruns Carloads; Van Spot +32% YoY

The Analysis

US rail traffic totalled 543,212 carloads and intermodal units in the week ending August 29, up 4.1% year over year. The split is the story: intermodal moved 303,191 containers and trailers, up 5.7%, while carloads grew only 2.2%. On the truck side, DAT's September 1 update put dry-van spot linehaul at about $2.19 per mile excluding fuel, 32.4% above a year earlier and 21% above the nine-year seasonal norm.

One number tells you the direction, the other tells you the price. Intermodal is already taking share from truck before peak season has loaded, and the +32.4% spot rate is what an uncovered load costs today. For most readers the live decision is not whether to use rail but how much of the long-haul book to put on it, what transit penalty that buys, and how to price the answer into quotations before the fourth quarter.

The five groups below work the same 4.1%, 5.7%, 2.2% and $2.19 from five different seats.

For Exporters

• By 20 September, get door-to-door rail intermodal quotes (linehaul, drayage, chassis, fuel) on the same scope as truck quotes for the 3 largest US inland destinations
• Compare 1,200-mile economics explicitly: truck at $2.19 plus $0.918 fuel is $3,730 a box versus rail at $2.15 door-to-door at $2,580, a $1,150 gap
• Run 2 pilot containers per lane in the first two weeks of October and record actual transit and damage
• Reprice US quotations with mode-dependent transit (7 days door by truck, 10 days by rail) and label which mode each price assumes
• Confirm the Incoterm: on DDP both the fuel and the mode choice are yours, so the modal saving lands in your margin
• Keep road for time-critical orders and route only predictable replenishment to rail; book inland-point-intermodal on one through document

If you sell DDP to a US inland point, the inland mode is your decision and therefore your cost. DAT put dry-van spot linehaul at about $2.19 per mile excluding fuel on September 1, 32.4% above a year earlier and 21% above the nine-year seasonal norm. Meanwhile AAR reported 543,212 carloads and intermodal units in the week ending August 29, up 4.1% year over year, with intermodal at 303,191 units growing 5.7% against just 2.2% for carloads. The rail network is already absorbing long-haul volume, well before peak season has fully loaded, so the capacity you want in November is being committed now.

Run the comparison properly. Assumptions: 60 forty-foot containers a month, a 1,200-mile inland leg from a US port, diesel at $5.967 a gallon and 6.5 miles per gallon. Fuel is $0.918 per mile, so truck door-to-door at spot is $2.19 plus $0.918, or $3.108 per mile, which is $3,730 a box. Rail intermodal door-to-door, assumed at $2.15 per mile including the drayage from the ramp to the door, is $2,580 a box. That is $1,150 a box, $69,000 a month, or about $828,000 a year. The cost is two to three extra transit days and one more handover point, which has to be priced into your delivery commitment rather than discovered by your buyer.

By September 20, request door-to-door rail intermodal quotes on the same scope as your truck quotes for your three largest US inland destinations: rail linehaul, ramp drayage, chassis and any fuel component, all in one per-box figure. Run two pilot containers per lane in the first two weeks of October and record actual door-to-door transit and any damage. Reprice your US quotations with mode-dependent transit — for example seven days door by truck and ten days door by rail — and state which mode each price assumes. Check the Incoterm before anything else: on FOB you carry neither the fuel nor the mode choice, and on DDP you carry both, so the $828,000 figure belongs to your margin either way.

Alternatives: keep road for time-critical orders and move only the predictable replenishment volume to rail; ask your carrier for an inland-point-intermodal booking so the ocean leg and the rail leg are on one through document; or quote ex-ramp delivery so the buyer owns the last dray. Traps: rail needs a rail waybill, and the container must be released at the ramp, so a customs query that lands the same week costs you free time. Forty-foot international containers carry ocean cargo; 53-foot domestic containers do not, so do not plan a switch on the wrong box. Ramp drayage is priced separately from the rail rate and is the tightest capacity in the chain. And a missed rail cutoff usually means the next train in 24 to 48 hours, not the next truck in the morning.

For Cross-Border E-commerce

• By 25 September, rank the top 30 SKUs by contribution and tag each rail-tolerant or truck-only (shelf life, seasonality, return rate, customer window)
• Move rail-tolerant SKUs on lanes over 900 miles to intermodal; rail saves $1,054 a container, $10,540 a month at 10 boxes, $126,480 a year
• Trigger on the DAT series: spot dry-van above $2.35 per mile for two consecutive weeks moves the tolerant list to rail; below $1.90 moves it back
• Fund the slower lane properly: 3 extra days at 1,100 units a day and $16 landed cost is $52,800 of safety stock
• Book rail capacity, chassis and drayage by 15 October, ahead of the November ramp queues
• Confirm ramp free time (24 to 48 hours) and take delivery on the release day so per-diem does not consume the saving

The number that changes your restock plan is $2.19 per mile excluding fuel, which DAT recorded on September 1 — up 32.4% year over year and 21% above the nine-year seasonal norm. That is not a normal September. Assume a 1,100-mile inland leg from a West Coast port to a Midwest 3PL, diesel at $5.967 a gallon and 6.5 miles per gallon. Fuel is $0.918 per mile, so truck spot door-to-door is $3.108 per mile, or $3,419 a container; rail intermodal door-to-door at an assumed $2.15 per mile is $2,365. The gap is $1,054 a container. On 2,000 units that is $0.53 a unit, about 1.6% of a $34 selling price and 6.5% of margin at a 24% gross margin.

Scale it. Assumptions: 10 containers a month, 2,000 units each, an average selling price of $34, a 24% gross margin, and 1,100 miles inland. Truck at $3,419 a container against rail at $2,365 saves $1,054 a container, so $10,540 a month and $126,480 a year. The cost is two to three extra transit days, which means three more days of safety stock. At 1,100 units a day and a $16 landed cost, that is 3,300 units, or $52,800 of working capital — recovered in about five months at this saving. And do not assume the rail option stays open: AAR shows intermodal volume already up 5.7% against 2.2% for carloads, so ramp slots in November are being taken in September.

By September 25, rank your top 30 SKUs by contribution and classify each into one of two buckets. Rail-tolerant means long shelf life, no seasonal spike, a return rate under 5% and a customer who will accept a two-day-wider window; everything else stays on truck. Move the rail-tolerant SKUs on lanes over 900 miles. Set two explicit triggers tied to the DAT series: if dry-van spot linehaul exceeds $2.35 per mile for two consecutive weekly readings, move the whole tolerant list to rail; if it falls below $1.90, move it back to truck. Book the rail capacity, the chassis and the drayage by October 15, not in November when the ramp queues are real.

Alternatives: consolidate two smaller restocks into one container so a single fuel and rail bill replaces two; move the 3PL closer to the port if your customer base allows; hold a deeper buffer on the top 20 SKUs and let the tail run slower for the whole quarter. Traps: rail free time at the ramp is typically 24 to 48 hours and per-diem starts immediately afterwards, so a 3PL that cannot take delivery on the release day gives your saving to the railroad; chassis is separately priced from the rail rate in split-pool markets and is scarce at peak; always compare door-to-door, never ramp-to-ramp; returns get worse when transit lengthens, so keep high-return SKUs off the slower lane; and never fund the cheaper lane by cutting safety stock, because a December stockout costs far more than the $1,054 you saved.

For Manufacturing Plants

• By 25 September, list every inbound lane over 800 miles with its contract coverage and current days of buffer
• Pilot 2 rail intermodal loads per candidate lane in October and measure real door-to-door transit and damage, not the schedule
• For lanes under 5 days of buffer, do not switch; raise contract coverage from 65% to 85% before the December build
• Quantify the rail option: 10.5 uncovered loads a week at $910 saved is $124,000 a quarter, against $135,000 of extra stock at 3 days and $45,000 daily consumption
• Pull the 5 highest-risk critical spares forward two weeks and book ramp appointments plus drayage by 15 October
• Check the Incoterm on every inbound lane: on FOB origin the mode choice and the fuel are your cost, and 53-foot domestic containers need a suitable dock

If your plant sits 900 or more miles from a supplier, the price of every uncovered inbound load is now $2.19 per mile excluding fuel, up 32.4% year over year and 21% above the nine-year seasonal norm as of DAT's September 1 update. Add fuel: at the $5.967 a gallon diesel level reported for the same week and 6.5 miles per gallon, that is $0.918 a mile, so an uncovered load runs about $3.108 per mile against a contract in the $1.75 to $1.90 range. The rail side has room, for now — AAR reported 543,212 units in the week ending August 29, up 4.1%, with intermodal up 5.7% against 2.2% for carloads — but that growth is exactly what will fill the ramps.

Quantify with stated assumptions: 30 inbound truckloads a week, an average 950 miles, 65% contract coverage, and components worth $85,000 a load. Uncovered volume is 35%, or 10.5 loads a week. At spot, $3.108 per mile on 950 miles is $2,953 a load; at rail intermodal, assumed at $2.15 per mile door-to-door, it is $2,043 a load. The saving is $910 a load, $9,555 a week, or about $124,000 a quarter. Transit rises by roughly three days, so safety stock on those parts must go from 8 to 11 days. At $45,000 of daily component consumption, three days is $135,000 of additional inventory; at an 8% cost of capital that is about $10,800 a year, which is cheap against $124,000 a quarter — but only if the rack space and the receiving dock hours actually exist.

By September 25, list every inbound lane over 800 miles and tag it with two facts: contract coverage and the days of buffer it already holds. Lanes already holding 10 days or more are the switch candidates; pilot two loads each in October and measure actual door-to-door transit and damage rather than the published schedule. Lanes under 5 days of buffer do not switch, because rail transit variance is what breaks a JIT line, not the average. For those, raise contract coverage from 65% to 85% before the December build. Pull the five highest-risk critical spares forward by two weeks while truck capacity still exists, book ramp appointments and drayage by October 15, and give one planner ownership of both.

Alternatives: a dedicated contract carriage deal with fuel included passes the diesel risk to the carrier for a 4% to 6% linehaul premium, worth it on lines that cannot take variance; a cross-dock nearer the plant shortens the truck leg without changing the mode; and for non-critical packaging and commodity parts, a four-hour-wider delivery window is a cheap way to buy rail economics. Traps: the ramp-to-plant dray may be 80 to 150 miles and sits outside the rail rate, so compare door-to-door. Fifty-three-foot domestic containers need a dock that can take them. If the supplier ships FOB origin, the mode and the fuel are your cost — check the Incoterm before the next purchase order. And for shelf-life materials, three extra transit days comes straight out of usable life.

For Brand Owners

• By 30 September, define two promise tiers: tier A is the top 20% of SKUs by revenue on truck with the current promise, tier B moves to rail with the promise extended two days
• Tell the 3PL and every sales channel in writing by 10 October which tier each SKU sits in
• Quantify the switch: 32 spot loads a month on 1,000 miles at a $958 gap is $30,656 a month and $367,872 a year
• Build the 3 extra days of DC buffer for tier B (6,600 units, $105,600 at a $16 landed cost) before the first rail container arrives
• Book rail slots, chassis and drayage by mid-October; intermodal is already up 5.7% and November ramps queue
• Measure promise adherence weekly through Q4 and write down channel stock priority where two channels share one DC

Two numbers frame the brand decision: dry-van spot linehaul at about $2.19 per mile excluding fuel, 32.4% above a year earlier and 21% above the nine-year seasonal norm, and rail intermodal growing 5.7% against 2.2% for carloads inside total US rail traffic of 543,212 units, up 4.1% year over year. The first sets what an uncovered inbound load costs; the second says the rail alternative your plan depends on is filling up while you decide. If your promise to the customer is three days from a US distribution centre, the inbound plan behind that promise has repriced and the cheaper mode is getting busier.

Model the choice. Assumptions: two US distribution centres, 80 inbound truckloads a month, an average 1,000 miles, and 40% of volume bought on the spot market, which is 32 loads a month. Spot door-to-door is $2.19 plus $0.918 of fuel, or $3.108 per mile, which is $3,108 a load on 1,000 miles; rail intermodal door-to-door at an assumed $2.15 per mile is $2,150 a load. The gap is $958 a load, or $30,656 a month across those 32 loads and $367,872 a year if the whole spot book moves. The price of that is three more transit days, so the DC must hold three extra days of buffer for the SKUs on the slower lane: at 1,000 orders a day, 2.2 units an order and a $16 landed cost, that is 6,600 units, or $105,600 of one-off working capital.

By September 30, put the plan on paper. Define two promise tiers and publish them internally: tier A is the top 20% of SKUs by revenue, keeps the current delivery promise and stays on truck; tier B moves to rail intermodal with the promise extended by two days, and every channel is told in writing by October 10. Make the DC build the extra three days of buffer for tier B before the first rail container arrives, not after the first late one. Book the rail slots, chassis and drayage by mid-October, because intermodal volume is already running 5.7% ahead of last year and November is when the ramps queue. Negotiate the fuel clause and the modal mix in a single conversation with the 3PL, because they are one cost line.

Alternatives: pay an all-in rate with fuel included and stop tracking the index; publish one honest slower promise across the whole catalogue instead of two tiers; or add a second DC closer to demand so the long inbound leg is rail and only the last leg is expensive. Traps: a fuel or fuel-adjacent surcharge table that only ratchets up turns a temporary spike into a permanent floor. A rail box that misses its cutoff arrives a day late, not an hour late, so tier B needs a buffer rather than an apology. Where two channels share one DC, write down who gets scarce stock when a rail container is late. And measure promise adherence weekly through the fourth quarter, because the failure mode here is not a visible cost increase — it is a quiet erosion of the delivery date you advertise.

For Procurement Teams

• Tender the 1,300-mile-plus lanes as one 12-month rail intermodal package by 30 September, with a slot guarantee written in
• Lift contract coverage from 60% to 85% by 1 November on lanes over 500 miles, moving 1,000 loads off spot for about $170,000 a year
• Move 600 loads of 1,300-mile-plus volume to rail at $0.90 a mile saved, worth about $702,000 a year against 3 extra transit days
• Build the fuel clause with a stated base price and a peg of about $0.159 per mile per $1.00 a gallon, plus a symmetric automatic step-down
• Write free time, container type (40-foot international versus 53-foot domestic) and dray ownership into every intermodal contract
• Two qualified carriers per critical lane by 1 December; keep terms at 6 to 9 months or add a market-adjustment clause, and state service-failure credits per day

Put two numbers on one page. DAT's September 1 update has dry-van spot linehaul at about $2.19 per mile excluding fuel, 32.4% above a year earlier and 21% above the nine-year seasonal norm. AAR has total US rail traffic at 543,212 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending August 29, up 4.1%, with intermodal at 303,191 units up 5.7% against 2.2% for carloads. With spot sitting 20% to 30% above a typical contract rate, the question is no longer whether to lock, but how much to lock and on which lanes.

Quantify both levers. Assumptions: 4,000 truckloads a year, an average 850 miles, 60% currently under contract (2,400 loads) and 40% on spot (1,600 loads). Spot door-to-door is $2.19 plus $0.918 fuel, or $2,642 a load on 850 miles. Raise contract coverage to 85%, moving 1,000 loads off the spot market, on a negotiated rate $0.20 per mile below spot, which is $2.908 per mile, or $2,472 a load. That is $170 a load and $170,000 a year. Then add the modal lever: move 600 loads on 1,300-mile-plus lanes to rail intermodal, assumed at $2.15 door-to-door against $3.108 by truck, a saving of $0.90 a mile. That is 600 x 1,300 x 0.90, or about $702,000 a year, in exchange for three extra transit days on that volume. Together the two moves are worth roughly $872,000 a year, and the rail half is the larger one.

By September 30, tender the 1,300-mile-plus lanes as a single rail intermodal package with a 12-month commitment, because rail is growing 4.1% overall and 5.7% on intermodal and will trade price for committed volume. Build the contract around: a fuel index clause on the EIA weekly diesel series with a stated base price and a peg derived from the other side of this week's news — roughly $0.159 per mile per $1.00 a gallon, or one cent per mile per 6.3 cents; a symmetric step-down requiring no negotiation; an accessorial cap; monthly reconciliation with audit rights; and service-failure credits stated per day, not per event. Targets: 85% contract coverage on lanes over 500 miles by November 1, two qualified carriers on every critical lane by December 1, and 25% of the 1,300-mile-plus volume on rail intermodal by December 1.

Alternatives: stay in the spot market and pay the 32.4% premium, defensible only for genuine surge volume; buy an all-in rate with fuel included, where the carrier carries the diesel risk for a 4% to 6% linehaul premium; use a 3PL-managed programme with a published indexed fuel basket; or commit to rail for the volume you can forecast. Traps: locking today's spot number into a 12-month term looks clever in September and painful in the spring, so keep terms at 6 to 9 months or add a market-adjustment clause. Specify which diesel series, which lag week and which mileage basis, or the clause will be argued line by line. In an intermodal contract, state free time at the ramp, container type — 40-foot international versus 53-foot domestic — and who owns the dray, or the cheap rate will reappear as per-diem and accessorials. And in a year when intermodal is already growing faster than carloads, a commitment without a slot guarantee is a promise with no capacity behind it.

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