Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand warned that container shipping will take at least three months to recover from the Middle East disruption, even if the US-Iran peace deal and 60-day negotiations hold. Three recovery phases were outlined: (1) extraction of ships and crew stuck in the Persian Gulf since March, (2) return of feeder and regional services into Arabian Gulf ports, and (3) restoration of major long-haul Asia-Europe and Asia-North America services. Sand noted that carriers had to act fast when the crisis hit in February, but the return will be far more cautious. A new normal is emerging with carriers building more resilience into networks through higher proportions of regional feeder services and transshipment hubs, which insulate long-haul networks from future disruption despite adding transit time.
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