Supply Chain Action Points
Read this first — the conclusion, and the moves to make:
- Confirm with your carrier in writing whether the CMA CGM PSS applies to your existing Asia-Europe, Mediterranean and North Africa bookings; get the answer before 20 June so the surcharge can be priced into open tenders.
- Normalize every rate comparison to per-FEU before tendering: North Europe at $2,475 per TEU is about $4,950 per FEU, above the US West Coast print of $4,149.
- Budget transpacific spot cargo at $4,149 per FEU West Coast and $5,333 East Coast as the current floor; on a 40-FEU monthly program the coast choice is worth about $47,400 a month.
- Book Europe and Mediterranean cargo before the first week of July if the goal is to land ahead of the 24 July tariff expiry; reserve two to three weeks of rollover exposure at major Asian load ports.
- Re-run the Q3 freight budget on 6 July, one week after the expiry date; if the SCFI falls more than 10% week-on-week, the front-loading wave has cleared and short-tenor spot buying resumes.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) extended its rally for a sixth consecutive week, with transpacific spot rates surging as the US 10% global tariff expiry on July 24 triggers a front-loading wave. US West Coast rates jumped to $4,149/FEU (up 31.5% week-on-week), US East Coast hit $5,333/FEU (up 23.6%), and North Europe rose to $2,475/TEU (up 29.9%). In parallel, CMA CGM announced a new Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) effective immediately on Asia-to-North Europe, Mediterranean, and North Africa trades, citing severe space constraints and equipment shortages. Shippers are racing to lock in space ahead of further rate escalation, with carriers warning of potential rollovers at major Asian load ports.
The Analysis
What did the index and the carrier actually say. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index extended its rally for a sixth straight week. US West Coast rates jumped 31.5% to $4,149 per FEU. US East Coast rose 23.6% to $5,333 per FEU. North Europe climbed 29.9% to $2,475 per TEU. In parallel, CMA CGM announced a new Peak Season Surcharge on Asia to North Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa, effective immediately, citing severe space constraints and equipment shortages. Two separate instruments, one week, pushing the same direction.
The driver everyone cites is the US 10% global tariff expiring on 24 July. Importers are pulling orders forward to land before the deadline, and the front-loading wave has been building for six weeks. Carriers are adding a surcharge on top on the Europe and Mediterranean side, and they are warning about potential rollovers at major Asian load ports. That is the picture. The money is in the details underneath it.
We should do the math on a 31.5% weekly jump, because that number gets misread. US West Coast went from roughly $3,157 to $4,149 per FEU, a gain of about $992 a box in one week. A shipper moving 40 FEU a month on that lane is paying roughly $39,700 more this week than last week for the same cargo, with nothing changed in the underlying goods. The East Coast print at $5,333 now sits $1,184 per FEU above the West Coast, so the routing choice between the two coasts is worth about $47,400 a month on a 40-FEU program.
Here is the number the headlines hide. North Europe at $2,475 is quoted per TEU, not per FEU. Put it on the same box as the transpacific prints and it is about $4,950 per FEU, which is higher than the US West Coast's $4,149. The table makes Europe look like the cheap trade. Per container, it is not. Anyone comparing the lanes straight off the index table, without normalizing units first, will misprice a Europe tender by roughly $800 a box.
The causal chain runs through a calendar. The US 10% global tariff expires on 24 July, so cargo that wants to land before the change has to leave Asia roughly four to five weeks earlier, allowing for transit. Add booking lead time at the load ports and the practical deadline for shippers is already this month. That is why the rally has run six weeks instead of two: it is not a capacity story yet, it is a deadline story. The equipment shortage CMA CGM cites is real, but it is being monetized through the surcharge rather than through blank sailings. That choice tells you the carriers read this demand surge as temporary, and they want the cash now rather than a rate that has to be defended later.
Who gets hit, and how hard. Transpacific shippers with spot exposure take the direct hit, and the East Coast lane at $5,333 is the most expensive print in the table. Europe and Mediterranean shippers take a different kind of hit: the PSS is a fixed add-on per box, and fixed add-ons punish low-value, heavy cargo hardest, because the surcharge is identical on a box of furniture and a box of electronics. If the PSS lands at $500 per FEU on a trade pricing near $4,950 per FEU equivalent, that is roughly a 10% cost increase that no spot movement explains. Small shippers without annual contracts and without scale on either trade feel both instruments at once.
Timing, stated plainly. The surcharge is effective immediately, which means it attaches to bookings made from now, including cargo sailing well after 24 July. If you have Europe or Mediterranean cargo booked but not yet loaded, ask the question today, not at the port. The front-loading window itself runs from now until roughly the first week of July; after that, the deadline cargo has sailed and the open question is what the market looks like with the tariff either renewed or gone. The rollover warnings at Asian load ports are not future tense. They describe the next two to three weeks of sailings.
The point most coverage misses is that a surcharge is a contractual instrument, not a market signal. Spot rates move up and down with demand; a filed surcharge sits on top of whatever the market does and comes off only when the carrier withdraws it. A Europe shipper who books in August at a soft spot rate can still pay more per box than a shipper who booked in May, purely because the surcharge is still attached. The second missed point is unit discipline. The table mixes per-FEU and per-TEU quotes, and no comparison across lanes is valid until you normalize.
What I will watch. Two things. Whether the SCFI rally breaks at week seven. Six weeks is already long for a front-loading move, and the shape that ends these rallies is a sharp single-week drop once the deadline cargo has cleared. Whether other carriers file matching surcharges on the Europe and Mediterranean trades. If CMA CGM stands alone, the PSS is a pricing test and shippers have somewhere to go. If the alliance networks follow, it is the new floor and you plan around it.
The opposite call is straightforward. If the 24 July tariff expiry is extended, delayed or renegotiated, the front-loading logic collapses overnight and the transpacific rally has nothing under it. Cargo that was going to sail in June for July arrival simply waits. The condition that flips this one is policy, not supply, and no amount of capacity discipline from the carriers fixes a deadline that moves. Price the post-deadline air pocket in advance, because the swing cuts both ways.
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