Supply Chain Action Points
Read this first — the conclusion, and the moves to make:
- Re-issue third-quarter customer quotes off the 6 to 12 July tables - DHL 40.75 percent, UPS 39.0 percent, FedEx and TNT 38.25 percent - and verify each against the carrier's own published table before sending.
- Split the quoting sheet by lane table, not by brand: the international table at 38.25 percent and the US table at 30.75 percent are separate lines with separate owners.
- Audit June invoices from the peak weeks above 39 percent against the July tables this week; any line still billing at June levels goes to the forwarder as a credit request within seven days.
- Pre-book August and September uplift on your top lane by 25 July while the tables sit off the June peak, and confirm the booking carries the current fuel basis in writing.
- Track the three tables every Monday through August; two consecutive weeks of no further easing becomes the floor assumption in your third-quarter cost model.
For the week of 6–12 July, international express fuel surcharges stood at DHL 40.75%, UPS 39.0% and FedEx 38.25% (TNT 38.25%), according to forwarder advisories. FedEx's own table showed the US express fuel surcharge at 30.75% for 6–12 July, reflecting softer jet-fuel prices versus the June peak above 39%.
The Analysis
Yesterday a client forwarded me two emails and asked which carrier was cheaper on fuel. One quoted an international table, one quoted a US table, and both said the same carrier. Same week, two numbers 7.5 points apart. That is this week's lesson.
The week of 6 to 12 July prints the international express tables close together: DHL at 40.75 percent, UPS at 39.0, FedEx and TNT at 38.25. The spread across the three is 2.5 points. The same week, one carrier's own published table shows its US express surcharge at 30.75 percent, against a June peak that ran above 39.
Two stories in one week: the international tables are easing off the June top, and the number you were quoted as 'the fuel surcharge' depends entirely on which table it came from. What follows prices the gap, explains why July is the cheapest quoting window of the quarter, and lists the moves to make before the tables turn.
Take the gap seriously, because it is bigger than the week-on-week noise. Explicit assumption: a $20 base express shipment, fuel as a percentage of base. The FedEx international table at 38.25 percent is $7.65 in fuel; the FedEx US table at 30.75 percent is $6.15. Same carrier, same week, $1.50 a piece apart, decided by lane. A shipper who benchmarks 'FedEx fuel' across two forwarder emails - one quoting the international table, one the US table - is comparing two different products and will reach whatever conclusion their inbox handed them. These numbers circulate as forwarder advisories; the carrier's own table is the source of truth, and this week's own-table check is what separates a real benchmark from a rumour.
Why the tables ease is jet fuel, plain and simple - softer prices versus the June peak above 39 percent. Why you should care in July rather than August is the calendar: third-quarter peak volume builds through August, back-to-school and pre-holiday stocking both land in it, and the quotes you send this month are the ones that price that volume. A soft table in the first half of July is the cheapest quoting window of the quarter, and it closes the moment fuel turns.
Who this touches, in order. Cross-border e-commerce sellers feel it first - fuel is the largest swing cost on a lightweight parcel and their quotes carry a fuel percentage whether they check it or not. Sellers quoting off June numbers are underwater right now: 38.25 against a June peak above 39 is a small easing, but on a $20 base every point is 20 cents, and nobody's margin can afford to donate it. Sellers moving US domestic freight should notice they are on a different table entirely - 30.75 against 38.25 - and stop benchmarking their domestic lanes against international chatter.
One more layer worth naming: the buyers paying the invoice side. If your supplier quotes you a landed price with fuel baked in, this week's easing lands in their margin, not yours, unless your contract indexes fuel to the published table. Ask that question now, while the tables are soft and the answer is cheap to get.
On timing, the tables reset weekly, and the July softening has already run into the second week of the month. The practical window is now to late July: reprice third-quarter peak quotes off the current tables and pre-book August and September uplift before any re-tightening. Fuel slides, the tables follow within a week or two; fuel reverses, the tables flip faster - June's peak demonstrated the temper of these tables when fuel moves.
The overlooked point is the two-table problem, and it is the quiet invoice killer. Every carrier runs multiple fuel tables - by service, by lane, sometimes by origin - and the loudest one is the one that circulates. The US table at 30.75 and the international table at 38.25 exist at the same time, so a shipper with one blended number in the ERP is wrong on both lines. Fix the data model first, then the price: one line per lane per week, sourced from the carrier, not from the forwarder's email. A second point nobody prints: two badges quoting the same 38.25 is not a coincidence - same network, same table. A shipper picking between them on fuel grounds is picking two badges on one invoice structure.
Run your own numbers while the window is open. Explicit assumptions: 3,000 pieces a month, $20 average base. The 7.5-point gap between the same carrier's two tables is $1.50 a piece, and $4,500 a month decided purely by which table your lane sits on. That is one carrier, one week, geography only. Scale the volume up and the same gap is a product line's margin. Before repricing, confirm which table each of your lanes is actually on.
The other direction. The bear case: fuel reverses in August, the tables rebound toward the June peak above 39, and sellers who repriced but booked nothing eat the high table on peak volume anyway. The bull case: fuel stays soft, the international tables drift toward 35 to 38 percent, and July's third-quarter quotes hold the whole quarter. What flips the conclusion is boring and observable: two consecutive weeks in the same direction. Soft one week is weather, two weeks is a trend, three weeks is your new cost baseline.
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