Summary
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The International Air Transport Association has slashed its 2026 air cargo volume growth forecast to just 0.2% year-on-year, down from an earlier 2.6% projection, as the Middle East conflict disrupts hub connectivity and effective capacity. Cargo revenue is still expected to rise 7.2% to $162 billion on higher yields. Middle East airlines, which account for roughly 13% of global cargo capacity, have been disproportionately affected, with passenger traffic in the region collapsing nearly 60% in March-April 2026.