AI-driven demand keeps air freight rates aloft despite capacity recovery

Summary

Xeneta data shows global air cargo rates rose 17% year on year in the first half of 2026, with spot rates up about 40% in May, as the Feb. 28 Middle East escalation removed 12% of capacity overnight. AI-driven semiconductor shipments—up 106% year on year in April—are the standout growth engine even as e-commerce cools.