Industry experts warn that full normalization of Strait of Hormuz shipping will take weeks rather than days despite the US-Iran peace deal signing set for June 19 in Switzerland. Lloyd's List Intelligence VP Adam Sharpe described the most likely scenario as a phased restart with traffic-management mechanisms involving Iran and Oman. Key unresolved issues include whether vessels need prior permission, whether Iran will impose service charges, whether foreign naval escorts are accepted, and whether mines require formal clearance. Kpler estimates 118 tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf with a 10-15 day backlog to clear. Insurance remains a critical bottleneck -- underwriters want evidence of stable, predictable operating conditions before reinstating coverage. Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent forecast to $80/barrel for Q4 2026 but warned near-term supply recovery is gradual. Prioritization is expected for oil tankers and LNG carriers, potentially delaying container and other cargo transits.
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