Uber Freight's Q3 market update, released 10 September, says diesel rebounded to a 2026 high of $5.652 per gallon in the week of 24 August, 52.4% above a year earlier, and warns small carriers may park trucks rather than run at a loss. Primary tender acceptance in its network rose from 76% in July to 78% in August, still below the 90-94% of the previous three years, while van contract rates are up 18% year on year and spot rates up 35.6%. LTL rate per pound is at an all-time high, 76.5% above the 2018 baseline.
Supply Chain Action Points
What this means for your business — and what to do about it:
Uber Freight's Q3 market update, released 10 September, puts diesel at a 2026 high of $5.652 per gallon in the week of 24 August, 52.4% above a year earlier, and warns that thin-margin small carriers may park trucks rather than run at a loss.
The capacity signal sits in the same document: primary tender acceptance in its network rose from 76% in July to 78% in August, still below the 90-94% the previous three years delivered. Van contract rates are up 18% year on year and spot rates up 35.6%.
LTL rate per pound is at an all-time high, 76.5% above the 2018 baseline. Read together, the numbers say one thing: contract capacity is scarce, the fallback has a published price, and the weight-based LTL index has moved far more than most budgets assume. The five notes below apply that to each role.
For Exporters
For a Chinese exporter selling on DDP into the US, this is an inland-cost story, and it arrives while the ocean leg is still expensive. Tender acceptance at 78% against a 90-94% norm means roughly one in five loads you book may not be covered by the contracted carrier, and the replacement is a spot market priced 35.6% above last year, against contract rates up 18%. Diesel at $5.652 a gallon, up 52.4% year on year, explains why: a small carrier running a lane at a loss parks the truck instead of hauling your freight. On FOB or CIF terms your cost stops at the port, but the inland number now decides whether your buyer holds the order size.
Put a number on the inland leg. Assume 40 FEU a month with door delivery inside the US, on an assumed last-year inland rate of $3,000 per FEU. At the stated 18% contract increase this year's contracted rate is $3,540, or $21,600 more a month across the 40 boxes. If the load falls to spot, the stated 35.6% increase takes it to $4,068, which is $1,068 above last year and $528 above this year's contract, so covering all 40 boxes on spot instead of contract costs about $21,120 a month more. Now apply the acceptance rate: at 78%, an assumed 8 or 9 of those 40 loads a month will not be covered first time. The rate base and the container count are assumptions, so use your own, but the size of the exposure is not.
Fix what you can control before the peak. Re-issue every DDP quotation that runs past 1 October by 25 September, stating that the US inland component is quoted on a contract basis and that any load tendered and rejected will be re-priced at spot. Require the forwarder to mark, on the booking confirmation itself, whether the truckload is contracted or spot. For loads that must hit a delivery window, buy committed capacity on the lane rather than the lowest rate, and give one owner the weekly tender acceptance review. Containers at risk of terminal dwell should get the first truck release, because a rejected tender on day one pushes the whole inland schedule.
The alternatives are rerouting and re-specifying. Moving the delivery point to a rail-served inland hub and using intermodal for the long haul removes a long truck leg while diesel is at $5.652, at the cost of two to four extra days and a second handover. Choosing a different gateway, or transloading near the port and running shorter regional truck legs, reduces spot exposure but adds handling and a warehouse cost. Moving the buyer to FOB is the cleanest exit but changes the commercial conversation. The traps are a quotation that assumes the contract rate applies to every box, a carrier confirmation that means booked rather than covered, and a fuel surcharge clause that has not been re-based since diesel was 52.4% lower.
- By 25 September, re-issue every DDP quotation valid past 1 October, stating the inland leg is quoted on contract and will be re-priced at spot if a tender is rejected.
- Require the forwarder to mark every booking confirmation as contracted or spot.
- Set a 90% weekly tender acceptance review per lane, with one named owner.
- For loads with a fixed delivery window, buy committed capacity rather than the lowest rate.
- Give first truck release to containers at dwell risk, so one rejected tender does not cascade through the inland schedule.
For Cross-Border E-commerce
The number that matters most to a cross-border seller in this update is not diesel, it is LTL rate per pound at an all-time high, 76.5% above the 2018 baseline. That is the cost of moving pallets from a port or a transload point into a fulfilment centre, and it is the leg most sellers re-price last because it sits inside a third-party invoice. Add van contract rates up 18% and spot up 35.6% year on year, and diesel at $5.652 a gallon, and the whole US domestic middle mile has moved. Peak replenishment budgets built on last year's per-pound assumptions are already wrong.
Work the LTL index backwards. Assume your third-party provider charges $0.62 per pound today on an inbound lane. The article says today's rate is 76.5% above the 2018 baseline, so the 2018 equivalent on that lane is about $0.35 per pound, an increase of about 7.4% a year over eight years. On an assumed 600,000 pounds a month moving LTL, the 76.5% step equals about $0.27 a pound, or roughly $161,400 a month of cumulative index movement. That is the gap to 2018, not the month-on-month change, so use it to size the structural problem rather than the next invoice. Separately, if fuel is 22% of an assumed $180,000 monthly LTL bill, that layer alone is $39,600 a month. Every figure here except the 76.5% is an assumption, so substitute your own per-pound rate and weight.
Change the replenishment mechanics before the peak. Where monthly volume supports it, consolidate small weekly LTL drops into full truckload or intermodal moves, and set a stated minimum weight per shipment that you will not go below. Recalculate safety stock days on the top 30 SKUs using the current per-pound cost rather than last year's, and hold the incremental buffer from late October through January. Give one owner the job of auditing the third-party invoice line by line for per-pound rate, dimensional weight and accessorials, on a monthly cycle, with a per-pound target per lane. Publish the new landed unit cost for the top 50 SKUs by 25 September so pricing can move before peak demand is locked in.
The alternatives trade cost against time. Intermodal is the obvious substitute for long-haul LTL while diesel is at $5.652, but it needs volume and it adds transit days that a fast-selling SKU may not tolerate. Full truckload consolidation beats LTL above a certain weight, but only if you can fill the trailer or pay for the empty space. Placing inventory in a second fulfilment centre closer to demand cuts the average haul length and the weight moved per pound, at the cost of duplicate stock and duplicated safety stock. The traps: dimensional weight turns a light bulky SKU into an expensive one; accessorials are where a cheap quoted rate gets rebuilt; and a 78% tender acceptance rate means a booked LTL pickup can still be re-scheduled within the same week, which breaks a promised in-stock date.
- Set a minimum weight per LTL shipment and consolidate weekly drops into full truckload or intermodal where monthly volume supports it.
- Recompute safety stock days on the top 30 SKUs using the current per-pound cost; hold the buffer from late October through January.
- Audit the third-party invoice monthly for per-pound rate, dimensional weight and accessorials, with a per-pound target for each lane.
- Publish the new landed unit cost for the top 50 SKUs by 25 September so pricing moves before peak.
- Track LTL rate per pound against the stated 76.5% above the 2018 baseline, not just month on month.
For Manufacturing Plants
A plant running just-in-time inbound to or from the US should read tender acceptance as a production risk, not a freight statistic. At 78%, roughly one in five tenders is not covered first time, against 90-94% over the previous three years. Diesel at $5.652 a gallon, 52.4% above a year earlier, is the reason carriers are choosing to park rather than haul. For a factory the practical translation is short: a lane that used to be dependable for a scheduled inbound delivery now needs a buffer, and the buffer has to be decided before the peak rather than during a breakdown.
Quantify it on one lane. Assume 40 inbound truckloads a month on an assumed last-year rate of $2,400 per load. At the stated 18% contract increase, this year's contracted rate is $2,832, or $17,280 more a month across 40 loads, and the stated 35.6% spot increase prices a re-tendered load at $3,254. At 78% acceptance an assumed 8.8 loads a month fail the first tender; each of those carries $854 more than last year and $422 more than this year's contract, so about $3,714 a month of avoidable premium and about $21,000 a month of combined exposure against last year. The load count and the $2,400 base are assumptions; the 18%, 35.6% and 78% are not.
Turn that into a scheduling rule. Set a 90% tender acceptance floor as a lane-level service requirement and give one owner the weekly carrier review. Any lane below the floor two weeks running moves to a second carrier or a second mode rather than waiting for it to improve. Recalculate safety stock for every inbound component with a lead time under 14 days, sizing the increase to cover the 22% of tenders that historically fall through. Pull planned maintenance and die change-outs that need imported heavy parts into the pre-peak weeks, when capacity can still be bought. Approve the revised inbound plan by 1 October so purchasing can act on it.
The alternatives are mode, buffer and source. Intermodal or a rail-served inbound point removes the long truck leg while diesel sits at the 2026 high of $5.652 per gallon, but adds transit days and a handover, so it suits predictable volume and not an urgent breakdown. Adding inventory is the simplest buffer and the most expensive, because it fixes cash in the plant rather than in a carrier's schedule. Qualifying a second supplier closer to the plant shortens the lane entirely, but takes months. The traps: a carrier confirmation is not a covered load at a 78% acceptance rate; a spot-priced load comes out of a different budget line and is often not approved in time; and if the buffer is sized from the contract rate, the factory absorbs the spot premium exactly when the line cannot wait.
- Set a 90% lane-level tender acceptance floor and assign one owner to a weekly carrier review.
- Any lane below the floor for two weeks running moves to a second carrier or a second mode.
- Recompute safety stock for inbound components with a lead time under 14 days, sizing it to cover the 22% of tenders that fall through.
- Pull planned maintenance and die change-outs that need imported heavy parts into the pre-peak weeks.
- Approve the revised inbound plan by 1 October.
For Brand Owners
Tender acceptance is the number that decides whether your delivery promise survives the peak. At 78% in August against a 90-94% norm, roughly one in five loads is not covered by the contracted carrier on the first attempt. Van contract rates are up 18% and spot rates up 35.6% year on year, and diesel sits at a 2026 high of $5.652 per gallon, up 52.4%. For a brand selling on a stated delivery window, that means the promise is being made against a capacity pool thinner than in any of the previous three years.
Price the promise. Assume 100 replenishment loads a month into stores or into a fulfilment network, on an assumed last-year lane rate of $2,800 per load. The stated 18% contract increase puts this year's contracted rate at $3,304; the stated 35.6% spot increase puts the fallback at $3,797. The gap is about $493 a load, so the 22 loads that fall to spot under a 78% acceptance rate cost roughly $10,850 a month extra. The load count, the $2,800 base and the 22 loads are assumptions, while the 18%, 35.6% and 78% come from the market update. Then add the service cost: a missed delivery window on a promised date is a customer-visible failure, and the cheapest fix in December is rarely a new carrier.
Decide the promise and the priority before the peak, not inside it. Set channel priority explicitly, direct-to-consumer, marketplace and wholesale, and write down which one gets scarce capacity first, with a named owner on each side of the third-party relationship. If the data says the promise cannot be held at 78% acceptance, narrow it to a stated cut-off rather than a guarantee, and publish that change at least two weeks before the peak selling weeks begin. Require weekly rather than monthly reporting from the carrier on tender acceptance, since the number moved two points in a single month. Hold a named buffer of committed loads, not options, on the lanes that feed your top selling weeks, and keep that buffer intact through January.
The options each cost something visible. Paying for committed capacity raises the unit cost but protects the promise, and with spot sitting 14.9% above contract it is usually the cheaper side of the trade, because the failures land on spot. Widening the promise window is free and removes the exposure, but it is a competitive concession. Adding inventory at channel level protects service, yet splits the buffer and can leave one channel short. The traps: reading a carrier's network-wide dashboard as if it were lane-specific; assuming the contract rate still applies to a load that was rejected and re-covered on spot; and a cost reset that never happens, so a peak-season premium quietly becomes the new baseline.
- If the promise cannot be held at 78% acceptance, narrow it to a stated cut-off and publish the change at least two weeks before peak selling weeks.
- Write down channel priority (direct, marketplace, wholesale) with a named capacity owner on each side for the peak season.
- Require weekly, not monthly, tender acceptance reporting by lane from the carrier.
- Buy committed loads, not options, on the lanes feeding the top selling weeks, and hold them through January.
- On the assumptions used here, spot exposure runs about $10,850 a month; treat that as the price of keeping the promise.
For Procurement Teams
This update gives procurement a rare thing: a market structure with numbers attached. Tender acceptance at 78% against a 90-94% norm says capacity is genuinely short. Van contract rates up 18% against spot rates up 35.6% says where the fallback price sits. Diesel at $5.652 a gallon, up 52.4%, says why small carriers are choosing to park. Those three numbers set both the negotiation range and the timing, because on the same base contract is 14.9% cheaper than spot, so every load that falls to spot is a measurable loss rather than a feeling.
Size the gap. Assume a lane with a last-year base rate of $2,800. The stated 18% contract increase puts this year's contracted rate at $3,304, and the stated 35.6% spot increase puts the fallback at $3,797. The gap is $493 a load, or 14.9%. Now use acceptance as the lever: at 78%, an assumed 22 of every 100 tenders fall to spot, costing about $10,846 a month per 100 loads; lifting acceptance to 90% moves 12 of those loads back to contract and saves about $5,916 a month per 100 loads. The rate base is an assumption, while the 18%, 35.6% and 78% are quoted from the market update. That arithmetic is the argument you take into the negotiation.
Negotiate for covered capacity rather than a lower headline rate. Open the lane review before the peak booking window closes and table three requirements: a written acceptance target per lane, a weekly report of actual acceptance by lane, and a defined remedy such as capacity allocation or a rate credit for lanes that miss the target twice. Where acceptance cannot be bought, convert the lane to a committed-volume agreement with a stated number of loads and a schedule, and accept a higher per-load rate in exchange for a load guarantee. Split the award so the incumbent keeps the lanes it serves well and the lanes it rejects go to a second carrier, which keeps the rejection history visible instead of absorbed. Name one owner for the monthly lane scorecard.
The alternatives are multi-sourcing, mode shift and price structure. A second carrier on the worst lanes costs a second onboarding and a second service standard, but it removes single-source exposure where 22% of tenders fall through. Intermodal substitutes a cheaper mode on long hauls while diesel is at its 2026 high, at the cost of transit days and a handover. An index-linked or fuel-indexed clause passes the diesel move through honestly, but only if the index and the re-basing date are both written down. The traps: paying for a lower rate on lanes that get rejected anyway; signing a 12-month fixed rate into a market where acceptance is still falling; and a fuel clause with no cap that resets at the same moment as the annual rate review.
- Set a written acceptance target per lane and require a weekly actual-acceptance report by lane.
- Define a remedy (capacity allocation or a rate credit) for lanes that miss the target twice.
- Where acceptance cannot be bought, convert the lane to a committed-volume agreement with a stated number of loads and a schedule.
- Split the award: the incumbent keeps the lanes it serves well, the worst lanes go to a second carrier.
- Do not sign a 12-month fixed rate while acceptance is still falling; price the fallback, not the headline.
- Cap the fuel clause and fix the re-basing date, so it cannot reset alongside the annual rate review.