Truckload carriers are signaling that contract rates set earlier in 2026 are proving too low as capacity continues to exit the market, with publicly traded carriers indicating the potential for double-digit rate increases in 2026 and 2027. The phenomenon of crumbling routing guides where contracted carriers increasingly reject tendered loads in favor of higher-paying spot market freight reflects a structural tightening of truckload capacity. Regulatory factors driving capacity exits include stricter CDL enforcement, crackdowns on questionable driver schools and ELD providers, increased policing of cabotage rules, and the Supreme Court broker liability decision. Carriers at a recent investor conference described the current environment as a potential multiyear rate upcycle, representing a dramatic turnaround after the nearly four-year freight downturn.
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