USMCA Review Enters Rolling Annual Phase as July 1 Deadline Passes; IEEPA Refund Chaos Deepens Ahead of June 9 Hearing

Summary

With the July 1 USMCA mandated review deadline passed without a formal renewal, the agreement enters a rolling annual review mechanism, meaning existing terms remain in force while the three parties can reopen negotiations on specific provisions at any time. Key friction points include rules of origin enforcement on Chinese inputs in Mexican supply chains and U.S. tariff levels on autos, steel, aluminum and copper. Separately, U.S. Customs reported only $85 billion of $166 billion in potential IEEPA tariff refunds have entered processing, with a June 9 court hearing set to determine whether full retroactive refunds must be issued.